i have my own system to predicting elections. it's called the dees the white house. and it's how well think party holding the white house has governed, whether or not the sitting president is running again. so if barack obama wants to extend -- which is very difficult, have three democratic presidents in a row, it is all going to depend on his success in governing and leading the country. if he is success, and comes out as a very popular president who has achieved something, then there's an excellent chance that the democrats are capture another term in the white house. if he doesn't. if he leaves as a failed president like george w. bush, then we'll get a change in party power in 2016 and this is true regardless of the identity of the democratic nominee. i think barack obama would very much like to be one of those rare presidents who passes on his success to another candidate of his own party. that doesn't happen very often. it happened with reagan and bush, and before that you have to go back to roosevelt and truman. >> michael: yeah, i agree with you, i just sort